class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Reasoning processes ] .subtitle[ ## How To Think - Week 2 ] .author[ ### Fernando Alvear ] .institute[ ### University of Missouri ] .date[ ### Jan 23 ] --- # Activity - We will do some silly exercises... please bear with me! - On each task, please consider the following questions: - _Speed_: How much _time_ did it take for you to complete the task? - _Control_: Could you have _not_ done the task (resist doing it)? - _Energy_: Did the task require _effort_ on your part? - _Awareness_: Can you _explain_ how you completed the task? --- class: middle, center Who is this person? <img src="assets/famous-person-1.jpeg" alt="" height="550"/> --- class: middle, center Who is this person? <img src="assets/famous-person-2.jpeg" alt="" height="550"/> --- class: middle, center Who is this person? <img src="assets/famous-person-3.jpeg" alt="" height="500"/> --- class: middle, center Is this edible? Is this appetizing? <img src="assets/tasty-cake.jpeg" alt="" height="550"/> --- class: middle, center How would you feel if you were standing there? <img src="assets/alex-heights.jpeg" alt="" height="550"/> --- class: middle, center Without using a calculator, what is the answer to this question: 17 times 21 = ? --- class: middle, center Imagine a person that has never been in campus before, so they don't know where things are or their names. The person is right here in this classroom, and needs to go to Starbucks in Memorial Union. <img src="assets/starbucks-memorial-union.jpg" alt="" height="400"/> What directions would you provide to this person to get from here to their destination? --- class: middle, center Which line (A or B) is longer than the other? <img src="assets/muller_lyer_illusion.jpeg" alt="" height="200"/> --- class: middle, center Which square (A or B) is darker than the other? <img src="assets/checker_shadow_illusion.svg" alt="Checker shadow illusion" width="600"/> --- class: middle, center Which tabletop is longer than the other? <img src="assets/shepard-tables.jpg" width="600"/> --- class: middle, center What classes are you taking next semester? <img src="assets/enroll-class.jpeg" width="600"/> --- class: middle, center What emotion is this person likely experiencing? <img src="assets/nico-sad.jpeg" height="500"/> --- class: middle, center What emotion is this person likely experiencing? <img src="assets/nico-happy2.jpg" height="500"/> --- class: middle, center # Thank you! --- # Reasoning processes What makes these tasks different? .pull-left[ - Recognize known people's faces. - Sense that someone is sad or happy. - Get the sudden impression that something is tasty or appetizing. - Compare shades / size / length of objects ] .pull-right[ - Work on a difficult math problem. - Decide which classes to take. - Create directions for a stranger to get to a location they don't know. ] -- We seem to process information in _two_ radical ways. --- # System 1 and system 2 .pull-left[ ## System 1 - Speed: Fast - Control: Automatic (involuntary) - Energy: Effortless - Awareness: Unconscious Examples: - Recognize known people's faces. - Sense that someone is sad or happy. - Get the sudden impression that something is tasty or appetizing. - Compare shades / size / length of objects. ] .pull-right[ ## System 2 - Speed: Slow - Control: Deliberate (voluntary) - Energy: Effortful - Awareness: Conscious Examples: - Work on a difficult math problem. - Decide which classes to take. - Create directions for a stranger to get to a location they don't know. ] --- # Speed Which process was faster? Which process was slower? .pull-left[ Recognizing this person: <img src="assets/famous-person-2.jpeg" alt="" height="300"/> ] .pull-right[ Work on a difficult math problem: 17 times 21 = ? ] --- # Control Which processes were under your direct control? Which ones weren't? .pull-left[ Recognizing this person: <img src="assets/famous-person-2.jpeg" alt="" height="300"/> ] .pull-right[ Work on a difficult math problem: 17 times 21 = ? ] .pull-left[Could you have decided _not_ to identify this person?] .pull-right[Could you have decided _not_ to answer this question?] --- class: center # Control over perceptual illusions Which square (A or B) is darker? Which one is lighter? <img src="assets/checker_shadow_illusion.svg" alt="Checker shadow illusion" width="600"/> --- class: center Which square (A or B) is darker? Which one is lighter? <img src="assets/checker-shadow-illusion.jpeg" alt="Checker shadow illusion" width="800"/> The squares have the same brightness. On the image on the left, are you able to see the squares as having the same brightness? -- It seems that _we are not in control_ of how we see the squares. We cannot but see them as being different in brightness. An automatic and involuntary system seems to be in charge of identifying colors and sizes of objects (system 1). --- class: center Which tabletop is longer than the other? <img src="assets/turningthetables.gif" width="600"/> --- class: center Which tabletop is longer than the other? <img src="assets/turningthetables-annie.gif" width="600"/> Both have the same size! --- # Energy Which processes didn't require much effort? Which ones did require effort? .pull-left[ Determining whether this was appetizing: <img src="assets/tasty-cake.jpeg" alt="" height="300"/> How much energy did you spend on this task? ] .pull-right[ Creating directions for a stranger: <img src="assets/starbucks-memorial-union.jpg" alt="" height="250"/> How much energy did you spend on this task? ] --- # Awareness Some of the tasks involved steps that were consciously accessible to you. Other tasks _just happened_. .pull-left[ How did you come up with the idea that this person was happy? <img src="assets/nico-happy2.jpg" alt="" height="300"/> ] .pull-right[ How did you come up with the answer to this problem? 17 times 21 = ? ] --- # Awareness Some of the tasks involved steps that were consciously accessible to you. Other tasks _just happened_. .pull-left[ How did you come up with the idea that this person was happy? <img src="assets/nico-happy2.jpg" alt="" height="300"/> ] .pull-right[ How did you come up with the answer to this problem? 17 times 21 = ? - 17 times 10 = 170. - 170 times 2 = ... - 70 times 2 = 140 - 100 times 2 = 200 - Adding up: 340 - 340 is 17 times 20, but the question was 17 times 21. - I added 17 to 340 = 357! ] --- # Summary: System 1 and system 2 .pull-left[ ## System 1 - Speed: Fast - Control: Automatic (involuntary) - Energy: Effortless - Awareness: Unconscious ] .pull-right[ ## System 2 - Speed: Slow - Control: Deliberate (voluntary) - Energy: Effortful - Awareness: Conscious ] Why is this important for reasoning better? - Sometimes system 1 lead us to _false_ beliefs. - Sometimes system 1 lead us to behaviors we don't want. - Sometimes we must _override_ system 1 to attain our goals. --- # The bat and the ball - The wrong answer comes from system 1. System 1's process: > This is easy: Since both things cost 1 dollar and 10 cents, it makes sense that the bat costs 1 dollar and the ball costs 10 cents! - The right answer can only be obtained with system 2: System 2's process: > It can't be 10 cents; since the bat costs one dollar more than the ball, the bat would cost 1.10, and both things would total 1.20! We got to use equations to solve this problem! >> bat + ball = 1.1 <br> bat = 1 + ball <br> (1 + ball) + ball = 1.1 <br> 1 + 2\*ball = 1.1 <br> 2\*ball = 1.1 - 1 = 0.1 <br> ball = 0.1 / 2 = 0.05. --- # Attraction to sugar .pull-left[ <img src="assets/tasty-cake.jpeg" alt="" height="480"/> ] .pull-right[ - We evolved in circumstances where calories were scarce and starvation was a real danger. Thus, system 1 sees food high in fat and sugar as highly desirable. - Now, fat and sugar are very accessible, and the danger of death by starvation is extremely low. If we want to stop eating too much fat and sugar, we need to use system 2, and override our impressions coming from system 1, which requires a lot of effort! ] --- class: middle, center <iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/arj7oStGLkU" frameborder="0" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe> Tim Urban describes how procrastination occurs. How are system 1 and system 2 processes involved? --- # Summary: System 1 and system 2 | | System 1 | System 2 | | --------- | ----------- | --------- | | _Speed_ | Fast | Slow | | _Control_ | Involuntary | Voluntary | | _Energy_ | Effortless | Effortful | | _Awareness_ | Unconscious | Conscious | --- # ChatGPT also gets it wrong! .center[ <img src="assets/chatgpt-1.jpg" alt="" height="500"/> ] --- # ChatGPT also gets it wrong! .center[ <img src="assets/chatgpt-2.jpg" alt="" height="500"/> ] --- # ChatGPT also gets it wrong! .center[ <img src="assets/chatgpt-3.jpg" alt="" height="500"/> ] --- .center[ <img src="assets/chatgpt-1-1.jpg" alt="" height="550"/> ] You must ask it to use system 2! --- # Thinking, Fast and Slow .center[ <img src="assets/kahneman-thinking-fast-slow.jpg" alt="" height="300"/> ] Daniel Kahneman is a psychologist who has worked on cognitive psychology and behavioral economics. He received the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics due to his work on judgment and decision-making. In 2011 he published the book _Thinking, Fast and Slow_, which summarizes much of his research, and presents it to a broader audience. It quickly became a best seller. The first chapter of Kahneman's book is posted on Canvas. --- # System 1 and system 2 in action ## 1. Using math to solve a problem .pull-left.w30[ <img src="assets/multiplication.jpg" alt="" height="300"/> ] To solve a multiplication of numbers with several digits (like 37 x 23) we follow an algorithm that we have in our memory, along with the multiplication tables that we also have in our memory. In the past, we memorized the multiplication tables and the algorithm. In other words, by repetition, we offloaded some system 2 tasks into system 1. Now we use system 1 to retrieve the multiplication tables and the algorithm, and use system 2 to perform the steps of the algorithm. --- # System 1 and system 2 in action ## 2. Playing a musical instrument .pull-left.w35[ <img src="assets/gmaj-chord.jpg" alt="" height="300"/> ] To play the chord of G major on a guitar, you must do this: - Place the index finger on the 2nd fret of the 5th string, - Place the middle finger on the 3rd fret of the 6th string, - Place the ring finger on the 3rd fret of the 2nd string, and - Place your pinky on the 3rd fret of the 1st string. When you learn how to play the guitar, you perform these steps consciously, by using system 2. After a while, this task gets integrated into system 1, and you can play the chord automatically. --- # System 1 and system 2 in action ## Question for this week's quiz Describe an **everyday situation** to illustrate how system 1 and system 2 work. Make sure to explain _why_ the tasks you describe correspond to each system. --- # Conflict between systems Just like with visual illusions, there are certain situations in which system 1 leads us to believe incorrectly. <img src="assets/shepard-tables.jpg" width="600"/> --- # Cognitive pitfalls System 1 often... - Uses **heuristics** in reasoning - Instead of reasoning with effort, we take _shortcuts_. - Resists **change** - We tend to _hold on_ to initial beliefs. - Is sensitive to our **desires and motivations** - We let our _desires/motivations_ affect what we believe. --- # Heuristics in reasoning A _heuristic process_ is a practical method that doesn't have its basis on theory, but rather is based on previous experience, rules of thumb, or trial-and-error procedures. Since they are not based on theory, they are not guaranteed to be optimal, but they can suggest a solution that most of the time is sufficient to achieve our goals. > "Norte claro, sur oscuro, aguacero seguro." (Clear north, dark south, sure downpour.) > "An apple a day keeps the doctor away." > "If the temperature at your station remains cooler than the upstream dewpoints, expect low clouds and fog." Importantly, there are also _mental shortcuts_ that are used automatically. --- class: middle, center # Availability heuristic Tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly and easily when making decisions or answering questions. --- # Availability heuristic Tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly and easily when making decisions or answering questions. Examples: - Bat and ball problem. - Lily pads problem - Machines and widgets problem. - Most deadliest animals. - Risk of flying versus risk of driving. --- class: middle, center # Representativeness heuristic Tendency to judge that an object pertains to some category based on how similar the object is to the _prototypical_ example of that category. --- # Representativeness heuristic Tendency to judge that an object pertains to some category based on how similar the object is to the _prototypical_ example of that category. Example: - As a student, Linda was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice. What is more probable? a. Linda is a bank teller. b. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. --- # Representativeness heuristic It's more probable that Linda is a bank teller than the combination bank teller + active in feminist movement, because the first group is larger than the second (the second group is a _subset_ of the first). Imagine a universe of 100 people, in which 10 of them are bank tellers, and 5 are bank tellers and active in the feminist movement. Probability (Linda is bank teller) = 10/100 = 1/10 = 0.1 or 10% Probability (Linda is bank teller AND is active in the feminist movement) = 5/100 = 1/20 = 0.05 or 5% --- # Representativeness heuristic Tendency to judge that an object pertains to some category based on how similar the object is to the _prototypical_ example of that category. Another example: - Tom lives in the United States. He is shy and likes classical music. What is more probable? - Tom is a farmworker. - Tom is a librarian. -- It's much more probable that Tom is a farmworker than a librarian, because there are much more farmworkers than librarians in the US (3,000,000 versus 80,000). Perhaps the majority of librarians are shy and like classical music, but that __doesn't mean__ that a random person who is shy and likes classical music is more likely to be a librarian. --- # Representativeness heuristic Tendency to judge that an object pertains to some category based on how similar the object is to the _prototypical_ example of that category. --- class: middle, center # Primacy effect Tendency to remember the first piece of information we encounter better than information presented later on. --- # Primacy effect Tendency to remember the first piece of information we encounter better than information presented later on. Example: - Alan is intelligent, industrious, impulsive, critical, stubborn, and envious. - Alan is envious, stubborn, critical, impulsive, industrious, and intelligent. The first description is perceived as being more favorable for Alan. --- class: middle, center # Confirmation bias Tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to evidence that fits our pre-existing views, while neglecting or discounting evidence to the contrary. --- # Confirmation bias Tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to evidence that fits our pre-existing views, while neglecting or discounting evidence to the contrary. Example: James thinks women are bad drivers. - When he sees a woman driving recklessly, he takes this observation as _supporting_ his belief that women are bad drivers. - When he sees a man driving recklessly, he attributes this as evidence that the driver is stupid, drunk, or distracted, but _not against_ his belief that women are bad drivers. .center[ <img src="assets/chainsawsuit.jpg" alt="" height="200"/> ] --- # Confirmation bias Tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to evidence that fits our pre-existing views, while neglecting or discounting evidence to the contrary. Example: Ana thinks left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people. - When she sees a left-handed person being creative, she takes this observation as _supporting_ her belief that left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people. - When she sees a right-handed person being creative, she takes this as evidence that the person is very talented, but _not against_ her belief that left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people. --- # Evidence Confirmation bias occurs when we evaluate _evidence_ for a claim. Evidence -> Provides support for -> claim Evidence is an observation that provides some degree of support for a claim. Observation: Seeing the lights on... - _Very strong_ evidence that the lights are indeed on in this room. - _Strong_ evidence that there is power throughout the building. - _Less strong_ evidence that there is power throughout campus. - _Weak_ evidence that there is power throughout the city. - _No_ evidence that it's raining outside. --- # Motivated / unmotivated confirmation bias - Sometimes we are biased to our beliefs because we _desire_ that they are/become true. - Example: A person believes that their candidate will win the upcoming election, but only because they want their candidate to win, not because of the available evidence. - This is an example of _motivated_ confirmation bias (motivated by the belief in question). - Sometimes we are biased to our beliefs even if we don't desire them to be true. - Example: A person believes that the catastrophic effects of climate change are unavoidable, despite the fact that this person _doesn't want_ this to be true. - This is an example of _unmotivated_ confirmation bias (_not_ motivated by the belief in question). - But perhaps the motivation comes from our desire to _be right_. If so, then all confirmation bias is motivated. --- # Summary: Cognitive pitfalls - Availability heuristic - Representativeness heuristic - Evidence primacy effect - Confirmation bias - (...) --- class: center, middle # Instructions Count how many times the players wearing white pass the basketball. Please try your best to count accurately. --- class: center, middle <iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vJG698U2Mvo?start=9&end=40" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe> --- class: center, middle <iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IGQmdoK_ZfY?start=4&end=40" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe> --- class: center, middle # Selective attention test How many passes did you count? -- The correct answer is **16 passes**. -- But did you see the _gorilla_!! -- Approximately 50% of those who watch this video don't notice the gorilla. --- class: center, middle <iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FWSxSQsspiQ" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe> --- # Discussion question - What does the "gorilla" test (called _selective attention_ test) say about S1 and S2 processes? - Is seeing the gorilla primarily a S1 or S2 task? - Is counting passes a S1 or S2 task? -- According to Kahneman (2012): > “Intense focusing on a task can make people effectively blind, even to stimuli that normally attract attention (...) It is the counting task—-and especially the instruction to ignore one of the teams—-that causes the blindness. No one who watches the video without that task would miss the gorilla. Seeing and orienting are automatic functions of System 1, but they depend on the allocation of some attention to the relevant stimulus. ” --- # Discussion question At the DMV, Bob is verbally asked whether he wants to be an organ donor. He struggles with the choice for a moment. He thinks of himself as someone who makes good, careful decisions, and who cares about other people. He ends up saying "no", without having a clear sense of why he did so. 1. What might the reason be for Bob’s instinctive preference? Do you think it’s an S1 or S2 response? 2. Imagine Bob is asked why he refuses to be an organ donor. He thinks for a bit and responds. What's an example of a justifying response he might give that's different from the reason you mention in question 1? 3. In your opinion, are either of these kinds of reasons better candidates for being thought of as Bob’s _real_ reasons? --- # Discussion question Is availability heuristic always a cognitive pitfall? Why or why not? --- # Discussion question In reference to Tim Urban’s video (posted on Canvas): How do you think system 1 and system 2 processes are involved in the phenomenon of procrastination? --- # Quiz Time: 15 minutes - You are allowed to use only _handwritten_ notes. Put away everything else. - For the multiple-choice section, copy your answers in the table on the top (write the letter of your chosen answer). .center[ <img src="assets/shepard-tables.jpg" width="400"/> .caption[ Shepard tables ] ]