class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # Getting in the right mindset ] .subtitle[ ## How To Think - Week 3 ] .author[ ### Fernando Alvear ] .institute[ ### University of Missouri ] .date[ ### Jan 30 ] --- # Reasoning process - System 1 and system 2 # Cognitive pitfalls - Availability heuristic - Representativeness heuristic - Evidence primacy effect - Confirmation bias - ... How to overcome these pitfalls? How to become better at reasoning? --- # It's not about being "smarter" Reasoning well is not about being good at analytical reasoning or having a high IQ. > Many highly intelligent people are poor thinkers. Many people of average intelligence are skilled thinkers. __The power of a car is separate from the way the car is driven.__ .right[Edward de Bono] --- # Mindset Reasoning well is about cultivating a _mindset._ - Be curious - Be thorough - Be open --- # Mindset Reasoning well is about cultivating a _mindset._ | Attitude | Elements | |----------|-----------| | Be curious | <ul><li>Adopt the mentality of the _scout_ instead of the _soldier_ in reasoning.</li></ul>| | Be thorough | <ul><li>Look for alternative answers/explanations.</li><li>Look for additional evidence.</li></ul>| | Be open | <ul><li>Consider the opposite.</li><li>Revise your degrees of confidence according to the evidence.</li></ul>| --- # "Soldier" versus "scout" attitude. <iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/w4RLfVxTGH4?start=10" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe> --- # Quiz question Why the scout mindset (as opposed to the soldier mindset) is the appropriate mindset to reason better? --- # "Soldier" versus "scout" attitude. - Soldier - Prepared to defend itself from aggressors. - Prepared to attack enemies. - Wants to win. - Scout - Has the task of mapping the terrain. - Observes the environment. - Compares what was told about the environment with what he/she sees. - Wants to be right. In an army, both tasks are essential. But _reasoning_ (in the sense of processing information to form beliefs and make decisions) has more to do with the _scout_ attitude. --- # Notable quotes from the video > Some pieces of information feel like our allies — we want them to win; we want to defend them. And other pieces of information are the enemy, and we want to shoot them down. That’s why I call motivated reasoning “soldier mindset.” --- # Notable quotes from the video > Just as soldier mindset is rooted in emotional responses, scout mindset is, too — but it’s simply rooted in different emotions. For example, scouts are curious. They’re more likely to say they feel pleasure when they learn new information or solve a puzzle. _They’re more likely to feel intrigued when they encounter something that contradicts their expectations_. --- # Notable quotes from the video > Scouts also have different values. They’re more likely to say they think it’s virtuous to test their own beliefs, and they’re less likely to say that someone who changes her mind seems weak. And, above all, scouts are grounded, which means _their self-worth as a person isn’t tied to how right or wrong they are about any particular topic_. For example, they can believe that capital punishment works and if studies come out that show it doesn’t, they can say, “Looks like I might be wrong. Doesn’t mean I’m bad or stupid.” --- # "Soldier" versus "scout" attitude. When we adopt the _soldier_ attitude in reasoning... - we are prone to react quickly, - we don't allow ourselves to change our views, and - we are prone to be biased towards our pre-existing views. When we adopt the _scout_ attitude in reasoning... - we allow ourselves to stop and observe, - we are relieved to catch mistakes in our reasoning (and change our views), and - we are open to evaluate evidence that goes against our pre-existing views. --- # Mindset Reasoning well is about cultivating a _mindset._ | Attitude | Elements | |----------|-----------| | Be curious | <ul><li>Adopt the mentality of the _scout_ instead of the _soldier_ in reasoning. ✅</li></ul>| | Be thorough | <ul><li>Look for alternative answers/explanations.</li><li>Look for additional evidence.</li></ul>| | Be open | <ul><li>Consider the opposite.</li><li>Revise your degrees of confidence according to the evidence.</li></ul>| --- # Alternative answers/explanations .pull-left.w45[ Suppose you have a sign in your lawn that supports a candidate in an upcoming election. One day you realize it's not there anymore. What happened? Explanation 1: Someone stole it! If you only consider one explanation under consideration, then you can become biased to notice evidence that is only in favor of that explanation: ] .pull-right.w50[ <img src="assets/yard-signs.jpg" alt="" height="250"/> ] - A post online saying that there were some vandalized signs in another neighborhood. - Learning that your neighbor supports the other candidate. What are other alternative explanations for the fact that the sign is not there anymore? --- # Alternative answers/explanations What are other alternative explanations for the fact that the sign is not there anymore? - It was blown away by a recent storm. - Someone in your family put it away to mow the lawn. The tendency to consider only a few possibilities in detail and thereby end up overly confident that no alternative view is correct is called _possibility freeze_. --- # Additional evidence Just as we need to come up with more possible explanations, we must gather additional evidence to determine the best/most plausible explanation. The temptation is to stop looking for more evidence after you find one that supports your favored explanation. - After seeing a post online saying that there were some vandalized signs in another neighborhood, you become convinced that someone stole your sign. This is called _optional stopping_: ending the search for evidence when convenient. -- Searching for evidence: - Signs of a recent storm (leaves or branches left in the ground). - Ask family, look around. --- # Mindset Reasoning well is about cultivating a _mindset._ | Attitude | Elements | |----------|-----------| | Be curious | <ul><li>Adopt the mentality of the _scout_ instead of the _soldier_ in reasoning. ✅</li></ul>| | Be thorough | <ul><li>Look for alternative answers/explanations. ✅</li><li>Look for additional evidence. ✅</li></ul>| | Be open | <ul><li>Consider the opposite.</li><li>Revise your degrees of confidence according to the evidence.</li></ul>| --- # Considering the opposite Confirmation bias: - We assign _high_ value to evidence that _support_ our views. - We assign _low_ value to evidence that _contradict_ our views. How to overcome it? -- Considering the opposite: - How would I have treated this evidence __if I held the opposite view__? - How would I have treated this evidence __if it had gone the other way__? --- # Example: Considering the opposite Pre-existing view: The death penalty is not effective at diminishing crime. Observation: Article reporting a study done in the UK that says that death penalty doesn't reduce crime. Considering the opposite: - How would I have treated this evidence __if I held the opposite view__? -- - This asks you to imagine yourself as _supporter of the death penalty_. - Perhaps you would have been much more critical of the study. - "This is just one study. What other studies say?" - "This applies to other countries. Why think it applies here as well?" -- - How would I have treated this evidence __if it had gone the other way__? -- - This asks you to imagine that evidence says that the _death penalty does reduce crime_. - Perhaps you would have been much more critical of the study. - "This is just one study. What other studies say?" - "This applies to other countries. Why think it applies here as well?" --- # Example: Considering the opposite The point is to evaluate evidence in its own right, and considering the opposite helps us to be more critical of evidence independently of our pre-existing views. In the previous example, the evidence does support the view that the death penalty is ineffective at deterring crime, but this support _is limited_. More studies should be examined, and it must be considered whether the results obtained elsewhere can shed light about what happens locally. --- # Discussion questions - Create a real-word example of confirmation bias. > In what contexts are we most prone to be biased? - In reference to your example of confirmation bias, explain how considering the opposite can help us to assess the evidence properly. > Considering the opposite: > > - How would I have treated this evidence __if I held the opposite view__? > > - How would I have treated this evidence __if it had gone the other way__? - Why the scout mindset (as opposed to the soldier mindset) is the appropriate mindset to reason better?